Yonela Ntshobane, Financial Lines and Cyber Underwriter at SHA Risk Specialists

Data has become an increasingly lucrative commodity to cyber criminals and businesses worldwide face a growing prevalence of cyber threats fueled by artificial intelligence (AI) and deepfake technology. Costs following incidents of such a nature can be very high. According to the IBM 2024 Cost of Data Breach report, data breaches in SA now cost R53.10 million per incident, on average. This figure is up from R49.45 million in 2023.

Yonela Ntshobane, Financial Lines and Cyber Underwriter at SHA Risk Specialists, explores the most prominent cyber risks for 2025 and offers insights into proactive strategies to mitigate these threats: “While businesses navigate regulatory and operational challenges, they must prepare for increasingly automated and deceptive cyberattacks.”

The biggest emerging cybercrime trends in 2024

According to the IBM Cost of Data Breach Report, in South Africa, stolen or compromised credentials was the most prevalent initial attack vector, representing 17% of breaches. This was followed by Phishing at 12% of cases and business e-mail compromise was at 10% of breaches studied.^[1] Ntshobane identifies three threats that were particularly concerning within the corporate landscape in 2024:

1.     Business email compromise (BEC)

Business Email Compromise has become increasingly and continues to remain on the radar as a predicted major loss driver for 2025. “Through sophisticated social engineering methods, the use of AI, deepfake technologies and honest human error, threat actors have been highly successful in gaining access to corporate networks using business email compromise tactics such as phishing to bait clients,” says Ntshobane.

2.     Supply chain attacks

These attacks have increased in frequency particularly in organisations lacking proper network segregation. “If a threat actor gains access via an exposure point in one division, they will be able to gain access to the entire organisation’s network,” explains Ntshobane

Gartner estimates that by 2025, 45% of organizations worldwide will have experienced attacks on their software supply chains which represents a three-fold increase from 2021.^[2] Due to the risk that these types of attacks pose and the fact that cyber criminals are becoming increasingly sophisticated in orchestrating these attacks, Gartner reports that 44% of organizations will substantially increase year-over-year spend on supply chain cybersecurity.

3.     Data Breaches

High profile incidents involving companies like MOVEit, MGM, and T-Mobile exposed records belonging to hundreds of millions of individuals, triggering lawsuits and significant financial settlements. ^[3] In South Africa the average cost of a data breach incident rose to R53.10 million up from R49.45 million in 2023^[4].

^[5]The report further highlights that 49% of breaches involved data stored across multiple environments, including public cloud, private cloud and on-premises. Breaches of this nature were reported to be the costliest at R59 million on average and took approximately 263 days to identify and contain.

What businesses can learn from these trends

Cyber security needs to be a proactive, organisation-wide priority. Training and awareness must become central to risk management, with many companies investing in phishing simulations, social engineering education, and other preventative measures. These initiatives address the root cause of 95% of all data breaches: human error.^[6]

Additionally, consulting with experts in cyber security, legal frameworks and risk management will prove invaluable. “Business should ensure that they are taking the initiative to implement proper governance and security standards across all environments as the cost of the cyber breach and post incident ramifications far outweighs the costs of implementing the appropriate risk management measures upfront,” says Ntshobane

The most prominent cyber risks and preparation strategies for 2025

Looking ahead, we anticipate that the following risks will be on the rise:

1.     Increased data breaches

The widespread adoption of AI will empower cyber criminals to launch more sophisticated, automated attacks. Businesses must prioritise governance and security standards across all environments, including cloud platforms.

2.     Deepfake technology

Deepfake technology which is technology used by criminals to manipulate media (photos and videos) which makes it very difficult to establish what is real and what is curated by the cybercriminal.   Companies will need to invest in tools, training and resources to help employees distinguish real information versus false information.

To prepare for these risks, businesses are encouraged to adopt a proactive approach and prioritise cyber security and risk management within their organisations. Some of the key areas and security measures a business should pay importance to are:

• Awareness training
• Password management
• Malware protection
• Back ups
• Security patching
• Restrictions to the use and installation of unsupported software
• Firewalls
• Due diligence performed when onboarding supplier or vendors

How the insurance industry is adapting

The insurance industry is embracing technology to enhance data analysis, risk assessment and to automate underwriting processes. “Our role extends beyond offering cyber insurance; we strive to educate the market about cyber security and its associated risks,” says Ntshobane. Insurers are investing in keeping pace with emerging threats and providing tailored risk transfer solutions to clients.

“Cyber is a highly specialised field which makes it very important to collaborate with the experts in cyber security, law firms, insurers and consultants to ensure that informed decisions and investment are being made for your business in this area. We encourage businesses to find the right partners to advise them appropriately. concludes Ntshobane.

^[1] Data breach recovery costs in SA reach new high | ITWeb

^[2] https://cybersecurityventures.com/software-supply-chain-attacks-to-cost-the-world-60-billion-by-2025/

^[3] cyber-security-trends-2024.pdf

^[4] Data breach recovery costs in SA reach new high | ITWeb

^[5] Data breach recovery costs in SA reach new high | ITWeb

^[6] https://thrivedx.com/resources/article/cyber-security-facts-statistics?referrer=cybint