The interconnected nature of global economies means political decisions, fiscal strategies, and monetary policies continue to ripple across markets. The 2024 US election, the UK’s latest budget, and upcoming central bank meetings collectively paint a complex picture for the road ahead.

There are attractive investment opportunities residing across this SA Inc landscape, but discretion is required. Valuations, growth prospects and capital return potential (dividends and share buybacks) differ considerably.

The SA Reserve Bank (SARB) Governor’s speech should be considered as dovish, with the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) describing inflation as well contained and the risks to inflation as balanced. Nevertheless, erring on the side of caution, the MPC cut the repo rate by 25 basis points (bp) to 7.75% and did not discuss a 50bp cut.

South Africans are long used to bad news, but recently the news has been better. Inflation is much lower, and the Reserve Bank cut interest rates again last week. In fact, viewed in isolation, the latest South African inflation numbers call for an even bigger interest rate cut than what was delivered.

While the jury is still out on what a four-year Donald Trump term might mean for Africa, historical trends suggest that a pro-business climate in the US generally boosts global equity markets – and many in Africa remain hopeful that renewed US-China trade tensions could create opportunities for the continent.

Investors may need to look beyond recent equity market winners to achieve their 2025 return objectives, the media were told at Schroders Crystal Ball 2025 Investment Outlook event.